One of the challenges of writing this column in the current environment is that politics is changing on an hourly basis. Trying to find the right moment to crystallise a view runs the risk of being out of date by the time it is. I’m writing this at 11.40 on Wednesday morning and so far, no significant politic earthquakes have occurred – in this environment, quite a dull week. But that could change later.

By the time this is read, we will know further details of the proposed Irish proposals for the withdrawal agreement. The prime minister, in his speech to the Conservative conference in Manchester, will detail what is being proposed as the last and final offer for a deal.

The problem facing the PM is that without a majority, there is little likelihood that a new deal could be passed so I am not hopeful that the EU will agree to the new deal. That means that the only deal in play is Theresa May’s deal and without prorogation of parliament, it cannot be represented for a fourth time.

That is why the rumours abound that Parliament will be prorogued next week, allowing a Queen’s Speech to take place on the 14th as originally planned, ahead of the EU summit on the 16th and 17th, and a presentation of what has been achieved in Brussels shortly after.

For what it’s worth, my guess is that we will be asked to vote again on Theresa May’s deal and that it will pass on its fourth presentation.

It is a challenge to then leave the EU on the 31st, but I believe will achieve it, albeit messily. And we will be out, at the beginning of the transition period where we will be negotiating a long term future relationship with the EU, to be delivered on the 31st December 2020.

But I’ve been in this game long enough to know that even in normal times, it is impossible to predict the future with any accuracy.

It is a fool’s errand to try to plan under current circumstance.

My staff are overwhelmed with diary challenges and my sincere apologies go to everyone who has had meetings cancelled by all this uncertainty.

Politics will get back to normal, but not until we are the other side of a general election. The sooner that occurs, the better.